St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langeliers homered to left (448 feet).6–4
- 6Wetherholt homered to right (380 feet), Gorman scored.6–3
- 2Langeliers doubled to left, Kurtz scored and McNeil scored.4–3
- 2Kurtz singled to center, Hernaiz scored, McNeil to second.4–1
- 1Pozo singled to center, Fermín scored.4–0
- 1Fermín doubled to center, Walker scored and Herrera scored.3–0
- 1Walker singled to left, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 58%
- ML STL +129 / ATH -156
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +29 Elo | ATH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–15 | 24–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19–2 | 19–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–3 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
