St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker doubled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.5–4
- 9Herrera singled to left, Saggese scored, Wetherholt to second.4–4
- 7Langeliers singled to center, McNeil scored and Thomas scored, Kurtz to second.3–4
- 7Gelof homered to left center (401 feet).3–2
- 6Gorman singled to right, Winn scored.3–1
- 6Walker homered to right center (381 feet).2–1
- 5Scott II homered to right (397 feet).1–1
- 1Kurtz homered to center (442 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML STL +101 / ATH -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.1%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- ATH -110
- STL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −13 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +13 Elo | STL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 9–920th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–16 | 25–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20–3 | 19–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–7–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–4 ATH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
