Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pozo singled to right, Church scored, Wetherholt to second.4–5
- 10Burleson singled to right, Saggese scored.4–4
- 10Witt Jr. doubled to center, Garcia scored.4–3
- 6Collins grounded out to first, Pasquantino scored, Caglianone to second, Jensen to third.3–3
- 5Pagés homered to center (419 feet).2–3
- 4Walker homered to center (409 feet), Herrera scored.2–2
- 4Collins hit sacrifice fly to right, Perez scored, Jensen to third.2–0
- 4Jensen doubled to left, Pasquantino scored, Perez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML KC -111 / STL -109
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- KC: Elo 48.3%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.010th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 27–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23–1 | 19–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–6 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.