Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caglianone homered to right (428 feet).2–4
- 8Burleson singled to left, Winn scored on error, Burleson safe at second on throwing error by catcher Díaz, Herrera safe at third on error.1–4
- 5Winn hit sacrifice fly to center, Church scored.1–3
- 5Scott II grounded into fielder's choice to first, Saggese scored, Church third.1–2
- 5Pasquantino singled to center, Garcia scored.1–1
- 1Burleson hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML KC -106 / STL -114
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- STL: Elo 55.0%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +35 Elo | STL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 11–1017th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–21 | 27–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23–1 | 20–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–7 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.