Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds doubled to left, Gonzales scored and Mangum scored.7–0
- 8Gonzales singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Mangum to second.5–0
- 8Mangum singled to right, Griffin scored, Rodríguez to third.4–0
- 6Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to right, Griffin scored, Rodríguez to third.3–0
- 4Garcia singled to center, Griffin scored, Rodríguez to second.2–0
- 2Horwitz homered to right (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML PIT -102 / STL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 56.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- PIT +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 13–1111th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21–1 | 21–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 21–23 STL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 44.