Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Herrera homered to left center (410 feet), Scott II scored and Wetherholt scored.6–9
- 9Horwitz singled to left, Griffin scored, Cruz to second.6–6
- 9Ozuna grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Gonzales scored, Reynolds out at second, Griffin to third.5–6
- 8Burleson homered to right center (404 feet).4–6
- 6Gorman homered to center (437 feet), Burleson scored.4–5
- 5Cruz singled to right, Reynolds scored, Cruz to second, Ozuna to third.4–3
- 5Reynolds doubled to left, Gonzales scored and Triolo scored.3–3
- 5Lowe scored on Liberatore wild pitch, Triolo to third on wild pitch by Liberatore.1–3
- 5Lowe scored on Liberatore wild pitch, Triolo to third on wild pitch by Liberatore.1–3
- 4Gorman grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Burleson scored, Walker out at second.0–3
- 3Wetherholt homered to center (406 feet), Pagés scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML PIT -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- STL: Elo 53.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +26 Elo | STL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–24 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21–1 | 20–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 21–22 STL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 43.