Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting2-4
- Bubba ChandlerPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner doubled to right, Crawford scored.6–0
- 2Schwarber doubled to right, Turner scored on throwing error by right fielder Triolo and Realmuto scored.5–0
- 1Harper homered to center (457 feet), Turner scored and Schwarber scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -171 / PIT +141
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -152
- PIT +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −13 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 13–1114th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 9th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–29 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20–2 | 25–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–10 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.