Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna grounded out to first, Griffin scored, Reynolds to third.2–5
- 7Heineman homered to right (391 feet).1–5
- 6Giménez grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Sánchez scored, Clement out at second.1–4
- 6Clement singled to left, Pinango scored, Sánchez to third.1–3
- 6Sánchez doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Pinango to third.1–2
- 6Ozuna doubled to right, Reynolds scored.1–1
- 1Springer homered to left (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML PIT -144 / TOR +119
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +35 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 14–1110th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 15199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22–2 | 23–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–7 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.