Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-3
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer hit a ground rule double, Straw scored and Valenzuela scored.2–6
- 8Sánchez doubled to right, Clement scored.2–4
- 8Reynolds grounded out to second, Lowe scored, Gonzales to third.2–3
- 3Pinango doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Varsho scored.1–3
- 3Varsho grounded into fielder's choice to first, Springer scored on throwing error by first baseman Horwitz, Varsho second, Guerrero Jr. safe at third on error.1–1
- 1Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored, Gonzales to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML PIT +139 / TOR -168
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -150
- PIT +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −1 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +54 Elo | TOR 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 13–1110th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 151710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22–1 | 23–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.