Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto doubled to center, Happ scored and Hoerner scored.6–8
- 9Ramirez grounded out to second, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Happ to third.4–8
- 9Hoerner singled to left, Suzuki scored, Happ to second, Busch to third.3–8
- 9Happ walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second, Suzuki to third.2–8
- 6Contreras singled to left, Turang scored.1–8
- 4Busch grounded out to second, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–7
- 3Chourio singled to left, Mitchell scored.0–7
- 2Contreras homered to left (374 feet), Turang scored.0–6
- 2Chourio homered to center (436 feet).0–4
- 1Yelich homered to left center (372 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML CHC +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- CHC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +18 | CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +60 Elo | MIL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–34 | Road vs home | 49–241st of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15671st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–73 | 76–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 38–58 | 52–59 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 78–60–8 | 64–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–32 MIL in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 56.