Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz singled to left, Lara scored and Yelich scored, Ortiz to second.9–5
- 7Pratt singled to center, Yelich scored.7–5
- 4Contreras singled to center, Turang scored, Vaughn to second.6–5
- 4Vaughn singled to center, Chourio scored, Turang to second.5–5
- 4Turang hit sacrifice bunt, Pratt scored, Chourio to third.4–5
- 2Bregman singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Taylor scored, Bregman to second, Suzuki to third.3–5
- 2Taylor singled to right, Shaw scored.3–3
- 2Chourio homered to right center (390 feet).3–2
- 1Bregman homered to left center (389 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.2–2
- 1Sánchez walked, Contreras scored, Lara to second, Bauers to third.2–0
- 1Lara singled to right, Vaughn scored, Bauers to second, Contreras to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -157 / CHC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.9%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -141
- CHC +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −16 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +34 Elo | MIL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–28 | Road vs home | 40–308th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–65 | 69–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–54 | 37–56 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 61–73–5 | 75–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 29–23 CHC in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 52.