Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez homered to center (386 feet), Chourio scored.7–4
- 7Freeman singled to right, Duran scored, Burger to third.7–2
- 7Burger reached on infield single to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Duran to second.6–2
- 6Pederson homered to right (380 feet).5–2
- 5Duran hit a ground rule double, Langford scored and Seager scored.4–2
- 3Duran homered to left center (410 feet).2–2
- 2Díaz hit a ground rule double, Freeman scored.1–2
- 1Chourio singled to left, Mitchell scored, Bauers to second.0–2
- 1Bauers singled to right, Turang scored, Mitchell to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML TEX +143 / MIL -154
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.7%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -147
- TEX +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −5 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +113 Elo | MIL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–41 | Road vs home | 47–232nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–79 | 73–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 50–53 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 65–61–10 | 58–73–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–8 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.