Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo homered to right center (426 feet), Seager scored.3–5
- 7Pratt hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.1–5
- 7Lara singled to left, Contreras scored, Yelich to second, Mitchell to third.1–4
- 5Freeman homered to left center (388 feet).1–3
- 2Lara singled to center, Yelich scored, Lara out stretching at second.0–3
- 1Contreras homered to left (409 feet).0–2
- 1Chourio homered to center (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML TEX +154 / MIL -166
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.7%, market 61.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- TEX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −11 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +98 Elo | MIL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 46–232nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15701st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–78 | 72–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–50 | 49–53 |
| Underdog | 32–28 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 65–61–9 | 58–73–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–7 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.