Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Elias DiazBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campero singled to right, Grissom scored.3–5
- 8Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Ballesteros scored.2–5
- 8Neto homered to left center (418 feet).1–5
- 5Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, Seager scored, Langford to third.0–5
- 5Díaz homered to left center (421 feet).0–4
- 2Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored.0–3
- 2Freeman tripled to center, O'Hoppe scored.0–2
- 2Duran homered to left center (403 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML LAA +143 / TEX -154
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.6%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -147
- LAA +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +61 Elo | TEX 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–42 | Road vs home | 35–2911th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 28th of 301450 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–69 | 55–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 24–49 |
| Underdog | 53–44 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–75–2 | 62–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 23–28 TEX in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 51.