Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting5-6, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Peter LambertPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored.18–3
- 9Guzman homered to left (363 feet), Peraza scored.18–2
- 7Neto doubled to center, Trout scored and Siri scored.16–2
- 5Neto homered to center (428 feet), Frazier scored and Schanuel scored.14–2
- 5Schanuel grounded into fielder's choice to first, Heineman scored, Siri out at second, Frazier to third.11–2
- 4Grissom doubled to left, Ballesteros scored and Neto scored.10–2
- 4Ballesteros singled to left, Meckler scored and Trout scored, Ballesteros to second, Neto to third.8–2
- 4Neto singled to left, Frazier scored, Trout to second, Meckler to third.6–2
- 4Frazier doubled to center, Lowe scored.5–2
- 2Frazier grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lowe scored on error. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was overturned.4–2
- 2Heineman hit sacrifice bunt to first, Grissom scored, Lowe to second.3–2
- 2Grissom singled to center, Ballesteros scored.2–2
- 1Alvarez scored, Altuve to second, Paredes to third on wild pitch by Rodriguez.1–2
- 1Alvarez scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Altuve to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez, Paredes to third on wild pitch by Rodriguez.1–2
- 1Altuve grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wade Jr. scored on throwing error by third baseman Grissom, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third.1–1
- 1Neto singled to right, Meckler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML LAA +169 / HOU -182
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.4%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -174
- LAA +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +8 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +103 Elo | HOU 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–41 | Road vs home | 32–3218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–69 | 65–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 50–44 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 52–73–2 | 66–54–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 18–33 HOU in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.