Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Massey singled to right, Caglianone scored, Massey out stretching at second.7–6
- 7Caglianone singled to right, Witt Jr. scored on error, Caglianone safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Neto.6–6
- 6Lowe homered to right center (407 feet).5–6
- 5Schanuel singled to right, Heineman scored, Trout thrown out at home.5–5
- 5Caglianone homered to right center (393 feet), Witt Jr. scored.5–4
- 3Neto singled to left, Schanuel scored.3–4
- 3Schanuel doubled to right, Guzman scored, Meckler scored and Heineman scored.3–3
- 3Caglianone singled to right, Isbel scored and Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to third.3–0
- 2Massey homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML KC -105 / LAA -103
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- KC: Elo 51.1%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- LAA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −19 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +7 Elo | KC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3020–43 | Road vs home | 28–3427th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 27th of 301463 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–61 | 56–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 47–35 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders | 56–62–4 | 51–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–9 LAA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.