Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Muncy singled to center, Ohtani scored, Tucker to second, Freeman to third.4–5
- 8Betts singled to right, Tucker scored, Muncy to third.4–4
- 8Jensen lined out to center, Caglianone scored on fielding error by center fielder Pages.4–3
- 8Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Caglianone to second.3–3
- 8Caglianone singled to left, Loftin scored, Witt Jr. to second.2–3
- 7T. Hernández doubled to left, Call scored.1–3
- 7Call doubled to right, Betts scored.1–2
- 4Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 2Betts homered to left (378 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML KC +250 / LAD -272
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.5%, market 71.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -256
- KC +256 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +96 Elo | LAD 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–41 | Road vs home | 34–236th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 27th of 301465 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–60 | 53–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 46–64 |
| Underdog | 46–34 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 55–61–4 | 54–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.