Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Starling MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Amaya homered to left (388 feet), Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.10–2
- 6Happ homered to right (401 feet), Bregman scored.7–2
- 6Bregman singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.5–2
- 4Marte homered to left (413 feet), Perez scored.4–2
- 4Bregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Busch to second.4–0
- 3Hoerner singled to center, Happ scored, Conforto to second.3–0
- 3Conforto singled to center, Busch scored, Happ to second.2–0
- 1Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Busch scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -158 / KC +147
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.1%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -151
- KC +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +26 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +43 Elo | CHC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3033–26 | Road vs home | 29–2918th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301548 | Elo rating | 146927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–61 | 59–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–47 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders | 60–51–7 | 53–61–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–5 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.