Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 2 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel singled to center, Marte scored.2–8
- 8Marte doubled to center, Collins scored and Loftin scored.2–7
- 8Bell homered to center (417 feet).2–5
- 5Caglianone grounded into fielder's choice to first, Witt Jr. scored.1–5
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to left, Jensen scored on error and Isbel scored, Witt Jr. safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Kreidler.1–4
- 4Roden hit sacrifice fly to right, Clemens scored on error, Lee safe at second on error, Lewis safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Rave.1–2
- 1Massey doubled to center, Caglianone scored.0–2
- 1Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML MIN -142 / KC +133
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.1%, market 57.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -137
- KC +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +23 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +20 Elo | KC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 26–2720th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 146527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–56 | 57–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 43–28 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders | 59–45–9 | 51–59–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 26–23 KC in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.