Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh grounded out to first, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second.3–4
- 7Caratini grounded out to third, Lee scored.3–3
- 6Larnach homered to right center (379 feet).2–3
- 5Keaschall homered to left center (385 feet).1–3
- 2Arozarena homered to left (350 feet).0–3
- 1Garver walked, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second, Canzone to third.0–2
- 1Rodríguez reached on infield single to shortstop, Young scored, Canzone to second, Arozarena to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML MIN +142 / SEA -172
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.1%, market 60.5%
- Fair odds
- SEA -153
- MIN +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +11 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +64 Elo | SEA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 30–249th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 150312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 47–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–28 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 58–45–8 | 54–50–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–12 SEA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.