Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens homered to right center (407 feet), Jeffers scored, Lewis scored and Roden scored.3–4
- 5Rave doubled to right, Jensen scored on throwing error by right fielder Clemens.3–0
- 3Caglianone homered to right (438 feet), Rave scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML KC +109 / MIN -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −4 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +44 Elo | MIN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–36 | Road vs home | 29–2714th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 27th of 301474 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–53 | 54–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 42–29 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 50–56–3 | 57–44–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 23–25 MIN in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 48.