Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Twins- Orlando ArciaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. singled to left, Rojas scored, Witt Jr. to second.3–2
- 9Jensen hit sacrifice fly to right, Tolbert scored.2–2
- 8Arcia homered to left (374 feet).1–2
- 5Gray hit sacrifice fly to center, Martin scored.1–1
- 1Jensen homered to right (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML KC +119 / MIN -144
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.8%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- KC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | KC: Luinder Avila: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 18–1615th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34–1 | 36–23–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 20–24 MIN in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.