Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting1-4
- Taj BradleyPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right (402 feet), Vargas scored.8–0
- 8Vargas singled to left, Antonacci scored.6–0
- 6Antonacci doubled to center, Nishida scored.5–0
- 1Peters grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Meidroth scored, Gonzalez out at second.4–0
- 1Gonzalez singled to center, Benintendi scored and Vargas scored, Meidroth to third.3–0
- 1Meidroth walked, Antonacci scored, Benintendi to second, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML CHW +123 / MIN -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +6 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +43 Elo | MIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 17–1412th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 27th of 301470 | Elo rating | 147525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 33–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–23–2 | 35–21–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–29 MIN in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 45.