Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds homered to left (422 feet), Callihan scored.5–6
- 3Cruz homered to right (450 feet).5–4
- 3Larnach homered to right (424 feet), Bell scored.5–3
- 2Gray singled to center, Larnach scored and Martin scored, Caratini to second.3–3
- 1Griffin singled to center, Gonzales scored.1–3
- 1Cruz grounded out to first, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to third.1–2
- 1Gonzales reached on infield single to third, Lowe scored on throwing error by third baseman Lee, Gonzales to second, Reynolds safe at third on error.1–1
- 1Clemens homered to right (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML MIN +114 / PIT -137
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +17 Elo | PIT 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 15–1515th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 26th of 301475 | Elo rating | 149215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–28 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21–6 | 30–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.