Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- David SandlinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Acuña grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Quero scored, Antonacci out at second, Peters to third.2–15
- 8Clemens homered to right center (405 feet).2–14
- 7Murakami homered to left center (432 feet).1–14
- 7Meidroth homered to center (400 feet), Quero scored, Peters scored and Antonacci scored.1–13
- 6Grichuk singled to left, Murakami scored.1–9
- 5Acuña singled to left, Antonacci scored.1–8
- 5Antonacci singled to right, Grichuk scored and Peters scored, Antonacci to second.1–7
- 5Quero hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.1–5
- 5Grichuk singled to left, Murakami scored, Vargas to second.1–4
- 3Montgomery doubled to center, Vargas scored.1–3
- 2Antonacci singled to center, Montgomery scored and Quero scored.1–2
- 1Buxton homered to center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML MIN -110 / CHW -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: David Sandlin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +4 Elo | CHW 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 15–118th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 146328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–26 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–21–5 | 32–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 27–14 CHW in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 41.