Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6J. Rodríguez grounded out to third, Chapman scored.9–4
- 5Schmitt grounded out to shortstop, Adames scored, Arraez to third.9–3
- 5Arraez singled to left, Gilbert scored, Adames to second.9–2
- 5Adames grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, J. Rodríguez scored, Bader out at second, Gilbert to third.9–1
- 4Vargas reached on infield single to shortstop, Murakami scored on throwing error by shortstop Adames.9–0
- 4Murakami doubled to left, Antonacci scored, Quero scored and Hill scored.8–0
- 4Hill singled to right, Benintendi scored, Quero to second.5–0
- 4Quero grounded into fielder's choice to second, Meidroth scored, Benintendi third.4–0
- 4Benintendi doubled to center, Murakami scored and Montgomery scored, Meidroth to third.3–0
- 4Meidroth walked, Antonacci scored, Montgomery to second, Murakami to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML CHW -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +26 | +9 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +19 Elo | SF 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 30 |
| 27th of 301465 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–23 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20–1 | 22–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–5 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.