San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to left (391 feet), Fernandez scored and Waldschmidt scored.3–5
- 9Del Castillo singled to center, Vargas scored.3–2
- 2Susac doubled to center, Chapman scored.3–1
- 2Adames homered to left (359 feet).2–1
- 2Devers homered to center (441 feet).1–1
- 1Carroll tripled to center, Carroll scored on throwing error by second baseman Arraez.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML SF +105 / ARI -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.7%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −13 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +33 Elo | ARI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 12–86th of 30 |
| 1st of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24–3 | 22–20–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–22 ARI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 40.