Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moniak hit by pitch, Doyle scored, Goodman to second, Rumfield to third.2–4
- 5Carroll doubled to right, Marte scored.2–3
- 2McCarthy singled to left, Karros scored, McCarthy out stretching at second.1–3
- 2Gurriel Jr. stole home, Fernandez stole second.1–2
- 2Gurriel Jr. stole home, Fernandez stole second.1–2
- 1Moniak singled to center, Doyle scored, Rumfield to second.0–2
- 1Rumfield singled to left, Castro scored, Doyle to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML ARI -144 / COL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 63.4%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +5 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +95 Elo | ARI 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–18 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19–4 | 21–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 28–12 COL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 40.