Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach AgnosPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moreno doubled to center, Vargas scored.9–1
- 7Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Arenado scored, Vargas to second.8–1
- 4Vargas reached on infield single to shortstop, Carroll scored, Arenado to second, Perdomo to third.7–1
- 1Goodman homered to left (387 feet).6–1
- 1Waldschmidt singled to right, Moreno scored and Fernandez scored.6–0
- 1Fernandez doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Moreno to third.4–0
- 1Moreno singled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–0
- 1Vargas singled to center, Carroll scored, Arenado to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -119 / COL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.6%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -108
- COL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.1 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +82 Elo | ARI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 8–1127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–18 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | — |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18–4 | 21–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 27–12 COL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 39.