San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bolte singled to left, Langeliers scored, Rooker to second.2–5
- 5Kurtz homered to center (417 feet), Butler scored and McNeil scored.2–4
- 5Bader homered to left (372 feet).2–1
- 4Arraez homered to right (350 feet).1–1
- 2McNeil doubled to right, Gelof scored, Hernaiz thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML SF +109 / ATH -131
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATH: Elo 53.5%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +25 Elo | ATH 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 9–1023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–23 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23–3 | 19–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–5 ATH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
