San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Eric HaaseBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lee doubled to right, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.6–2
- 7Gilbert reached on bunt single to catcher, Ramos scored, Adames to second.4–2
- 5Haase homered to left center (384 feet).3–2
- 5Bader homered to left (360 feet).2–2
- 3Ohtani homered to left center (398 feet).1–2
- 3Haase homered to left center (393 feet).1–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML SF +273 / LAD -349
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.8%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -290
- SF +290 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +16 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +121 Elo | LAD 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–21 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | — |
| Overs–unders | 18–20–3 | 18–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 17–26 LAD in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 43.