San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Rodríguez grounded out to second, Ramos scored, Chapman to second, Adames to third.9–3
- 9Chapman walked, Devers scored, Adames to second, Ramos to third.8–3
- 9Adames singled to left, Schmitt scored, Ramos to second, Devers to third.7–3
- 7Adames singled to right, Arraez scored and Schmitt scored, Devers to second.6–3
- 7Devers walked, Lee scored, Schmitt to second, Arraez to third.4–3
- 6Muncy homered to left center (396 feet).3–3
- 6Ramos doubled to left, Devers scored and Schmitt scored.3–2
- 4Pages grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tucker scored, Muncy out at second, Smith to third.1–2
- 4Muncy singled to right, Freeman scored, Smith to second, Tucker to third.1–1
- 2Devers homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML SF +157 / LAD -192
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.0%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -169
- SF +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −17 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–20–3 | 17–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 16–26 LAD in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 42.