San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-3
- Robbie RayPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Call hit sacrifice fly to right, T. Hernández scored.0–4
- 4T. Hernández singled to right, Tucker scored.0–3
- 3Betts homered to left center (414 feet).0–2
- 3Espinal homered to left center (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML SF +202 / LAD -251
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.5%, market 68.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -216
- SF +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 2.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +82 Elo | LAD 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 13–109th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15551st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | — |
| Overs–unders | 18–21–3 | 18–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–26 LAD in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 44.