San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rojas singled to center, Call scored.2–5
- 6Call singled to right, Muncy scored and T. Hernández scored, Call to second.2–4
- 5Lee inside-the-park home run to left (225 feet), Haase scored.2–2
- 2Kim singled to center, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to third.0–2
- 1Smith homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML SF +153 / LAD -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- SF +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +94 Elo | LAD 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–13 | Road vs home | 14–108th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 15561st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–22 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 20–23 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | — |
| Overs–unders | 18–22–3 | 18–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 18–27 LAD in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 45.