Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sullivan hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored.8–6
- 8Karros grounded into fielder's choice to third, Johnston scored, McCarthy safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Arenado, McCarthy safe at third on error.8–5
- 8McCarthy singled to right, Rumfield scored, Johnston to second.8–4
- 8Castro hit sacrifice fly to right, Goodman scored.8–3
- 6Carroll homered to right center (448 feet).8–2
- 5Fernandez reached on infield single to third, Moreno scored.7–2
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left (379 feet).6–2
- 4Castro hit a ground rule double, Johnston scored.5–2
- 4Johnston doubled to right, Rumfield scored.5–1
- 4Carroll homered to right center (431 feet), Vargas scored.5–0
- 4Vargas singled to center, Moreno scored.3–0
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Perdomo scored, Arenado to second.2–0
- 3Arenado singled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML ARI -144 / COL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.3%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +73 Elo | ARI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 9–1227th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–19 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20–4 | 21–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 28–13 COL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 41.