San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker homered to left (407 feet), Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.6–4
- 7Chapman doubled to left, Devers scored, Adames to third.6–1
- 5McNeil grounded into fielder's choice to first, Butler scored, Hernaiz out at second.5–1
- 5Schmitt homered to right (355 feet), Arraez scored.5–0
- 3Adames singled to right, Arraez scored and Lee scored, Adames thrown out at second, Schmitt to third.3–0
- 1Schmitt homered to left (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 55%
- ML SF +113 / ATH -136
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 52.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +17 Elo | ATH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 26–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24–3 | 19–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–6 ATH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.