San Francisco Giants at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Harrison BaderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bader homered to right (346 feet), Adames scored, Chapman scored and Lee scored.10–1
- 8Lee reached on infield single to second, Devers scored, Chapman to second, Adames to third.6–1
- 8Susac grounded out to second, Schmitt scored, Adames to second, Devers to third.5–1
- 8Devers singled to center, Arraez scored on fielding error by center fielder Butler and Bader scored, Schmitt to second.4–1
- 5Cortes doubled to second, Hernaiz scored, Kurtz to third.2–1
- 4Chapman doubled to center, Adames scored.2–0
- 3Arraez homered to right (340 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 57%
- ML SF +123 / ATH -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 55.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +35 Elo | ATH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 10–1123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–24 | 26–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24–3 | 20–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–6 ATH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.