Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Colt EmersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Emerson homered to right (344 feet), Naylor scored and Canzone scored.1–6
- 7Peters homered to right (366 feet).1–3
- 6Naylor singled to right, Arozarena scored.0–3
- 3Arozarena doubled to left, Pereda scored, Arozarena to third.0–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to right center (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML CHW +134 / SEA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +80 Elo | SEA 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 27th of 301467 | Elo rating | 151610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19 | 21–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–16 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.