San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Nick CastellanosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Naylor scored, Arozarena out at second.7–4
- 8Arozarena reached on infield single to second, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to third.7–3
- 7Durán homered to left center (386 feet), Laureano scored.7–2
- 5Crawford homered to right center (378 feet).5–2
- 4Young singled to right, Naylor scored, Raley to second.5–1
- 4Castellanos homered to center (401 feet), Bogaerts scored and Andujar scored.5–0
- 4Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to third, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Sheets out at third.2–0
- 2Sheets homered to right center (382 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SD +144 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.8%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -155
- SD +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.0 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +26 Elo | SEA 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 30 |
| 29th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–23 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25–2 | 19–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–11 SEA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.