San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Song grounded out to first, Andujar scored, Laureano to second.2–0
- 4Andujar doubled to left, Sheets scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SD +113 / SEA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 8th of 301520 | Elo rating | 15226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 15–23 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24–2 | 19–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–11 SEA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.