San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sheets doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.8–3
- 6Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to third.7–3
- 6Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Rivas scored, Rodríguez to third.7–2
- 6Naylor walked, Emerson scored, Rodríguez to second, Rivas to third.7–1
- 6France singled to center, Merrill scored and Laureano scored.7–0
- 6Merrill doubled to right, Machado scored.5–0
- 6Sheets homered to right (404 feet), Andujar scored.4–0
- 5France singled to right, Bogaerts scored.2–0
- 1Sheets homered to right (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SD +126 / SEA -153
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.1%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -137
- SD +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | SD: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–23 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 15–25 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25–2 | 20–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 8–11 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 19.