Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk homered to right (360 feet).4–5
- 8Peters grounded into fielder's choice to second, Meidroth scored on throwing error by shortstop Emerson, Kelenic out at second, Peters to second.3–5
- 7Arozarena homered to left center (396 feet), Rodríguez scored.2–5
- 7Pereda homered to left (392 feet).2–3
- 5Murakami singled to right, Acuña scored, Antonacci to third.2–2
- 4Wisdom doubled to left, Arozarena scored.1–2
- 3Benintendi singled to center, Antonacci scored.1–1
- 2Canzone doubled to right, Arozarena scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML CHW +119 / SEA -144
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.8%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- CHW +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −6 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +77 Elo | SEA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–1522nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Elo rating | 151610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–23 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20–1 | 21–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–17 SEA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.