Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Meidroth singled to left, Murakami scored.5–3
- 11Lee doubled to right, Buxton scored, Kreidler scored and Keaschall scored.5–2
- 8Murakami homered to right (380 feet), Nishida scored.2–2
- 4Martin singled to center, Clemens scored.2–0
- 4Clemens tripled to right, Larnach scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −15 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +22 Elo | MIN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 15–108th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 146528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–26 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21–5 | 31–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 26–14 CHW in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 40.