Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Red Sox challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Trevo6–5
- 6Lee singled to left, Kreidler scored and Martin scored, Lee to second.6–4
- 6Martin doubled to left, Arcia scored, Kreidler to third.4–4
- 4Mayer singled to right, Yoshida scored.3–4
- 4Contreras homered to left (382 feet), Abreu scored.3–3
- 3Caratini grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Larnach scored, Clemens out at second, Bell to third.3–1
- 3Larnach singled to right, Lee scored.2–1
- 2Yoshida homered to right (393 feet).1–1
- 1Clemens singled to right, Larnach scored on error, Clemens safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Abreu, Bell safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML MIN +144 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.1%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -155
- MIN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 8–1630th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–25 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20–5 | 22–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–11 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.