Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caglianone doubled to right, Jensen scored.3–1
- 7Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, Wong scored.3–0
- 6Contreras homered to left center (435 feet), Gasper scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML BOS -111 / KC -108
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.8%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -101
- KC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–28 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25–1 | 21–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 13–6 KC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.