Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sogard doubled to right, Wong scored.1–8
- 8Baldwin hit sacrifice fly to center, Mateo scored.0–8
- 5Smith singled to center, Riley scored.0–7
- 4Yastrzemski homered to right (344 feet).0–6
- 2Olson grounded out to first, Yastrzemski scored, Baldwin to second, Azócar to third.0–5
- 2Baldwin walked, Mateo scored, Azócar to second, Yastrzemski to third.0–4
- 1Riley homered to left center (431 feet), Albies scored and Harris II scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML BOS +119 / ATL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.5%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −4 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 15–84th of 30 |
| 7th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–27 | 32–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 19–12 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25–1 | 18–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–8 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.