Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to left center (426 feet), Abreu scored.3–2
- 5Baldwin singled to left, Azócar scored, Baldwin thrown out at second.1–2
- 4Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Masataka Yoshida out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Mickey Gasper scores.1–1
- 1Baldwin homered to center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML BOS +107 / ATL -129
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.9%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +55 Elo | ATL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 15–74th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–27 | 32–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 19–11 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24–1 | 18–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–8 ATL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.