Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Yastrzemski doubled to left, Kim scored.2–3
- 7Mayer homered to right center (378 feet).2–2
- 6Gasper singled to left, Narváez scored.1–2
- 4Harris II homered to center (419 feet).0–2
- 1Baldwin homered to center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML BOS +119 / ATL -144
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.6%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −13 | BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 14–75th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–27 | 32–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23–1 | 18–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–7 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.