Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Larnach walked, Lee scored, Outman to second, Martin to third.8–6
- 7Martin homered to left center (377 feet), Lee scored.7–6
- 7Buxton homered to center (419 feet), Keaschall scored.5–6
- 4Duran grounded out to first, Narváez scored, Durbin to third.3–6
- 4Durbin hit sacrifice bunt, Sogard scored, Durbin to first on throwing error by pitcher Prielipp, Durbin to second, Narváez to third.3–5
- 2Buxton singled to left, Kreidler scored, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.3–4
- 2Keaschall singled to right, Gonzalez scored, Clemens to second, Kreidler to third.2–4
- 2Kreidler doubled to left, Bell scored, Gonzalez to third.1–4
- 1Mayer hit sacrifice fly to center, Monasterio scored.0–4
- 1Monasterio singled to left, Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Contreras tripled to center, Abreu scored.0–2
- 1Abreu doubled to right, Duran scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML MIN +129 / BOS -156
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +51 Elo | BOS 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 8–1429th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19–5 | 21–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–11 BOS in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.