Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras singled to left, Rafaela scored, Abreu to second.7–1
- 9Duran homered to right (366 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Mayer scored.6–1
- 8Contreras grounded out to third, Rafaela scored.3–1
- 2Durbin singled to center, Narváez scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Kiner-Falefa safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Thomas.2–1
- 1Thomas doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.1–1
- 1Contreras singled to left, Duran scored, Abreu to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -136 / KC +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–28 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26–1 | 21–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–6 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.